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In 2025, the global economy stayed more resilient than many expected. AI-related investment, inventory rebuilding, and supportive fiscal/monetary policy helped offset rising trade barriers and policy uncertainty. At the same time, energy demand is increasingly centered in fast-growing, high-population economies—many of which are also becoming the front line of the clean-energy transition.
1. Global macro: resilient growth, continued disinflation
OECD projections suggest a soft-landing path rather than a downturn. Global growth is expected to moderate gradually, while inflation continues to trend down, with most major economies projected to return to target around mid-2027. Tariff-related pressures remain a risk, but they have not fundamentally changed the broader growth/disinflation trajectory.
2. Trade: calmer, but still headline-driven
Looking into 2026, global trade conditions may move toward a temporary equilibrium, with volatility easing versus 2025. However, the trade environment remains highly sensitive to policy signals, investigations, and enforcement intensity—meaning sudden disruptions can still reappear quickly.
3. Steel demand: emerging regions remain the growth engines
Incremental steel demand is increasingly concentrated in India (still the strongest growth contributor) and three key regions shaping seaborne trade flows: ASEAN-5, MENA, and Central & South America. In 2025, demand across these regions totaled 214 Mt, outpacing growth momentum in Europe and North America—reinforcing their importance in trade and price formation.
4. End-use split:
Construction stayed stronger in emerging markets, while Europe showed early signs of stabilization.
Manufacturing remained broadly weak, with performance diverging by sector (mining more resilient; automotive and metal products still pressured).
5. 2026 outlook: strong supply, uneven demand, cost-driven pricing
For 2026, the market narrative remains: strong supply vs. uneven demand, especially with China’s property sector still under pressure and overcapacity—particularly in flat products—likely to persist. With limited expectation of meaningful production cuts, pricing is increasingly anchored by cost dynamics and export competitiveness.
Our base price view:
China HRC: RMB 3,000–3,400/t (low-level range)
Export FOB: USD 430–480/t
What could drive volatility:
Chinese government growth-stabilization policies
Industry interventions (e.g., measures aimed at curbing aggressive competition / “anti-involution”), especially anything that tightens supply temporarily
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If you’re looking for a reliable partner in 2026, CUMIC is ready to support. We
Combine global sourcing with quality management and strong delivery
execution—helping you secure the right material, control lead times, and improve
procurement efficiency. Reach out to CUMIC for your tailored steel solutions.
Download the full report
This blog is a quick snapshot. For the complete data, regional breakdowns, assumptions, and full 2026 outlook framework, download our full report here.
